If History Rhymes

Stocks have already lost 18% through the first 96 trading days of 2022. Odds are, things should get better from here, right? When stocks experience losses that surpass 10% through mid-May of a trading year, investors often see gains by the end of December. About half...

The Stuff That Stock Bears Are Made Of

The financial media wanted you to believe that the consumer is still strong. They pointed to data that showed robust spending at retailers this past April. What they failed to tell you? Those dollars had not been adjusted for inflation. When one accounts for...

Stop Betting on the Fed to Save Stocks

Why was inflation so horrendous in the 1970s? The U.S. Money Supply increased by more than 40% in a 3-year period. Why is inflation so troublesome today? The U.S. Money Supply increased by more than 50% over the last three years. Apologists say that the money printing...

Say Goodbye, TINA

Many folks wonder why the Federal Reserve needs to be so aggressive with interest rate hikes. After all, 30-year fixed mortgages have topped 5%, making it nearly impossible for homebuyers to qualify. The primary way for a central bank to beat back inflation is to...

What Are We Smoking?

It would be difficult to deny the existence of today’s asset bubble. Not if macro-economic data and stock valuations matter. The stock bubble became particularly egregious in 2020. That’s when the Federal Reserve’s excessive money creation (a.k.a....