2020 Stock Bubble is Broader than 2000’s Tech Bubble

During 2000’s tech bubble, the insanity was primarily contained to the info tech and communication services sectors. Dot.com. Digital. However, the notion that investors should pay any price imaginable for a piece of the dot-com pie had become entirely irrational....

The Iron Rule: Regression to the Trend

The stock bubble peak in 2000 marked an unprecedented 128% overshooting of the trend. That was leaps and bounds worse than the price move above the trend in the bubbles of 1901 and 1929. For most of the 21st century, though, the Federal Reserve has done everything in...

Mall Space

As a result of several factors such as the rise of e-commerce, changing consumer behaviors and rising rents, shopping malls have been hit particularly hard over the last decade. The mall vacancy rate in the U.S. is now at an all-time high of 9.7%, according to Reis...

In the Long Run: Valuations Drive Stock Returns

The S&P 500 clearly sits in the top 5% of historical valuations on at least eight different measures. Price-to-sales, price-to-book, 10-year P/E, EV-to-EBITDA, EV-to-Sales – it almost does not matter which metric you choose. They’re all flashing a cayenne pepper...

Turning Japanese? I Really Think So

A heavily indebted country with debt-to-GDP north of 100%. That’s like making $100,000 per year while carrying a credit card balance of $100,000. Tack on an aging demographic that has been drawing down at an ever-increasing rate on social benefits. Cap it off with an...