Dow Theory Sell Signal

Dow Theory has been a popular tool on Wall Street for 100-plus years. It considers two significant market indexes — the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJI) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT). Some theorists say that when “lower highs” are...

Margin Debt Madness

A mesmerizing jolt of leverage in late 1999 topped out in March 2000. That same month, the S&P 500 hit its all-time bubble peak. A similar surge in leverage began in 2006. Margin debt peaked a mere three months (July 2007) before the stock market’s high...

Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained

Venture capital is in free fall, down 51% in just eight months.  Otavio Costa notes that two of the barometer’s components have nosedived in the last three months alone — deal counts (-40%) and early financing (-54%).    ...

The Fed’s Recession Probability Model

It happened in 1990. It happened in 2000. It happened in 2008. Each time that the New York Fed’s Recession Probability Model cracked 30%, economic contraction occurred shortly thereafter.