Nobody Knows How the Real Estate Bubble Will Play Out

First things first. Is real estate experiencing a housing bubble? Look no further than how much one would need to pay in rent to be equivalent to his/her current cost of home-ownership. That is what Owner’s Equivalent of Rent (OER) tells us. When the spread...

Capitulation?

Last month, I observed something about the June stock market lows. Specifically, investors did not give up on stocks. They did not “capitulate.” Here is my observation during the bear bounce in July: “In the 2000-2002 bear, individual investors...

The Next Leg Down

Have we seen the bottom for the stock bubble? Bullish enthusiasts point out that when stocks have recovered more than 50% of their bear market losses, they’ve never fallen to new lows. For these folks, once the S&P 500 surpassed 4232, the bear market ended....

Where’s the Beef?

Since March, the Federal Reserve has rapidly hiked its overnight lending rate in an effort to curtail inflation. It may be working. However, the more important work to beat back inflation involves removing trillions of dollars from the financial system. Specifically,...

Lies, Bigger Lies, and Economic Data

It was the worst of times, it was the best of times. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the country created more than 500,000 jobs in July. Equally terrific? The data show gains of nearly 1.7 million new positions in just 5 months....