Captain’s Stock Log

No price analog is flawless. That said, the similarity between 1999-2000 and 2019-2020 is rather disturbing.      

It’s a Mad, Mad ‘MAGA’ World

It looks like MAGA ate the stock market. No, not the Trump acronym, the other MAGA. Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon have soared beyond $5 Trillion in market capitalization. That’s 17% of the S&P 500 in four stocks. Before the 2000 bubble burst, Cisco,...

When Will Earnings Matter Again?

Earnings and price. They’re supposed to move together. The dramatic disconnect between the price of the Dow and forward estimates is beyond alarming.      

The Fed’s ‘Every Asset Bubble’ Created Wealth Inequality

The Fed’s accommodative monetary policy produced substantial stock inflation, while growth in “real economy” prices has been subpar. Specifically, since the recovery began in 2009, wages have grown about 50% and nominal GDP has grown roughly 50%. In contrast, stocks...

Apocalyptic Retail

If the consumer is as strong as many would like you to believe, should the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) be outpacing the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) by 3000 basis point (30%) in two short years? E-commerce explains some of the discrepancy. And the erosion of...