The S&P 500 clearly sits in the top 5% of historical valuations on at least eight different measures. Price-to-sales, price-to-book, 10-year P/E, EV-to-EBITDA, EV-to-Sales – it almost does not matter which metric you choose. They’re all flashing a cayenne pepper red.
From currently elevated valuations, the next decade is far more likely to emulate to the 2000s than the 2010s. Why? More than 140 years of stock market history suggest that starting valuations drive long-term returns of 10 years or more. (See the second chart below.)