Darker Before the Dawn

Do you believe that the U.S. economy will experience a recession in 2023? Most signs point to it. Rare are the circumstances when 10-year Treasury obligations yield more than three quarters of a percentage point more than 3-month T-bills. The “yield curve...

Buckle Up: Hard Economic Landing Straight Ahead

The mainstream financial media continue to push the notion that the employment picture is robust. Unfortunately, the reality is a lot less vigorous. Consider the fact that millions of working-aged Americans never returned to the workforce after the 2020 pandemic. The...

Wither the Money Supply?

In the world of stocks, investors may be taught about a variety of things that move the markets. The economy. Corporate profits. Geopolitical events. Technical price patterns. Greed. Fear. There’s some truth in the complexity. At times, however, Ockham’s...

A Pause Is Not A Pivot

In recent weeks, investors have pushed S&P 500 stocks 11% up off their lows. That is a pretty solid, albeit standard, bear market bounce. Some believe that the bounce will usher in the beginning of a brand new bull market. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? Not...

The Next Leg Down

A primary cause of skyrocketing product prices and service prices? Central banks electronically printed obscene amounts of dollars, making the value of those dollars worth less. The Federal Reserve has been trying to undo its policy error by terminating some of the...