Bubble Denial

Investors have an ability to delude themselves for extraordinary lengths of time. For instance, the worst annual performance for investment grade corporate bonds occurred in 2018. It was a miniscule -3.8% loss for IG corporates (via LQD). Here in 2022? IG corporates...

Stock Valuations Do Not Matter… Until They Do

Those who refuse to give up the idea that the stock bubble has burst, or refuse to consider that the market will drop further, ignore stock valuations. Consider the popular earnings-based and book-based metrics. In what world has the 21% decline from the top provided...

Until Something Shatters

A few weeks ago, most pundits in the financial media had declared that the bear market was over. If nothing else, they insisted, we had already seen the bearish lows. They were wrong about the bear market being over. And they are almost certain to be wrong about the...

The Worst Is Not Yet Behind Us

At the start of 2022, the stock market had been sitting atop its highest valuation extremes ever. In fact, our modern-day circumstance rivaled 1929’s super-bubble as well the dot-com hysteria in 2000. By June of this year, the S&P 500 had descended as much...

Nobody Knows How the Real Estate Bubble Will Play Out

First things first. Is real estate experiencing a housing bubble? Look no further than how much one would need to pay in rent to be equivalent to his/her current cost of home-ownership. That is what Owner’s Equivalent of Rent (OER) tells us. When the spread...

Capitulation?

Last month, I observed something about the June stock market lows. Specifically, investors did not give up on stocks. They did not “capitulate.” Here is my observation during the bear bounce in July: “In the 2000-2002 bear, individual investors...