Has the Market Already “Priced In” the Worst?

Scores of commentators have been trying to persuade the investing public that stocks are “on sale.” After all, the S&P 500 is roughly 23% lower than it was at the start of 2022. Might that imply that one can pick up a large company index fund at a...

Three Things Must Happen

Most folks understand it now. The “Everything Bubble” burst. Like the dot-com balloon in 2000. Like the housing froth in 2008. Over-hyped assets eventually plummet. In the first nine months of 2022, bonds and stocks have simultaneously succumbed to...

Wake Me Up When It’s Over

Many in the mainstream financial media have been declaring that the current bear is one of the worst in history. That is incorrect. As least as far as stocks go. With respect to stock price decline, the S&P 500’s 23%-24% fall from grace has yet to reach...

Bubble Denial

Investors have an ability to delude themselves for extraordinary lengths of time. For instance, the worst annual performance for investment grade corporate bonds occurred in 2018. It was a miniscule -3.8% loss for IG corporates (via LQD). Here in 2022? IG corporates...

Stock Valuations Do Not Matter… Until They Do

Those who refuse to give up the idea that the stock bubble has burst, or refuse to consider that the market will drop further, ignore stock valuations. Consider the popular earnings-based and book-based metrics. In what world has the 21% decline from the top provided...

Until Something Shatters

A few weeks ago, most pundits in the financial media had declared that the bear market was over. If nothing else, they insisted, we had already seen the bearish lows. They were wrong about the bear market being over. And they are almost certain to be wrong about the...