Hedge Stock Exposure with Commodities

Household exposure to stock has rarely been higher. At the same time, investors are leveraging that exposure with call options. How much leverage? It is greater than at any prior point in history. On top of the highest household allocation to stock, on top of...

The Ever-Changing Narrative

Despite hyper-valuation reminiscent of the 2000 stock bubble, prices continue to set record after puffed-up record. And they show little sign of slowing down or reverting to a longer-term average. What would happen if stock prices did regress to a mean? The S&P...

Easy Money Consequences

U.S. financial conditions are the easiest that they’ve ever been. At least according to an index created by Goldman Sachs. In essence, the index assesses things like credit spreads, borrowing costs, exchange rates and interest rates. The verdict? Financial...

Three Christmas Eve Charts

The late 1990s represented a period in history when investors began paying ridiculous premiums to own growth stocks. After the stock bubble burst in 2000, growth stocks in the Nasdaq 100 collectively crashed 80%. In 2020? The investment community is at it again. This...

Bubble Dynamics

You do not have to be a geneticist to understand why the stock market has flourished. The economy may have suffered millions upon millions of permanent job losses. However, when there are 50 additional cents in M1 money sloshing around the financial system since March...