Margin Debt Madness

A mesmerizing jolt of leverage in late 1999 topped out in March 2000. That same month, the S&P 500 hit its all-time bubble peak. A similar surge in leverage began in 2006. Margin debt peaked a mere three months (July 2007) before the stock market’s high...

Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained

Venture capital is in free fall, down 51% in just eight months.  Otavio Costa notes that two of the barometer’s components have nosedived in the last three months alone — deal counts (-40%) and early financing (-54%).    ...

The Fed’s Recession Probability Model

It happened in 1990. It happened in 2000. It happened in 2008. Each time that the New York Fed’s Recession Probability Model cracked 30%, economic contraction occurred shortly thereafter.      

Don’t Start My Business Up

The Bloomberg U.S. Startups Barometer is a weekly indicator that tracks the well-being of the environment for private tech companies. The index peaked at 1545.32 on June 24, 2019. On February 10, 2020 it fell to 833.74. The Bloomberg Startups Barometer may only be...

Why Main Street Can’t Afford Wall Street

Proof positive that the Fed manipulation of rate policy has done little for the typical American. Workers must put in nearly 130 hours to afford a single share of the S&P 500. Why is that significant? It’s approximately 3x more than it was just 10 years ago. In a...