Excessive Speculation Rarely Ends Well

Speculation drives market activity more today than it did at any previous moment in history. To wit, short-dated single stock option volume is now 5x greater than it used to be. Think about this for a moment. Rather than invest for a long-term stream of cash flows,...

The Sellers Inside

Corporate insiders are selling shares in monstrous amounts. The unusual level of activity suggests that executives are wary of overvalued stock pricing. In contrast, retail investors and fund managers alike are exceptionally bullish on stocks. For instance, fund...

Here Comes the Sun

The current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for the S&P 500 is 2.4. That is higher than it was at the peak of the 2000 stock bubble. I decided to screen large-cap U.S. companies for outrageous P/S valuations — those that jumped the 15x revenue barrier. According...

Exponential Price Insanity

One of the features of a stock bubble? Staggering price gains over relatively short periods of time. Apple (AAPL), for example, is a phenomenal company. Its smartphone, music and television platforms are addictive to hundreds of millions of people. Should it really be...

Five Stock Steps Beyond?

During stock bubbles, market participants abandon bargains to chase the hottest trends. And this bubble is no different. For example, during periods of relative equanimity, there may not be much of a difference between the pursuit of high-flying momentum and the...