Three-Sigma Valuation Warning

When it comes to understanding the wackiness of the 2020 stock bubble, it may be instructive to look at valuation indicators that correlate highly with future investment returns. For instance, one might combine the data from the Q Ratio, Crestmont P/E, PE10 and...

‘Risk-On’ Reversal

Even in 2000, investors did not fall in love with far out-of-the-money calls on tech shares to juice gains. In 2020? The indefatigable upsurge in call options relative to put protection has been unrivaled. Naturally, this is the sort of nonsensical bullishness that...

Ketchup or Blood on the Street?

Extended periods of overbought conditions in relative strength (RSI) typically lead to market pullbacks. Equally telling? The RSI for the S&P 500 has hit 81 — a relatively rare feat in and of itself. In a similar vein, at 3567, the S&P 500 is trading 15%...

Panic Buying

Daily gains of 5%-10% on mega-caps as if they are penny stocks? The price action for August of 2020 has been positively bonkers. For instance, Tesla (TSLA) witnessed 60% month-over-month gains. 60% in August alone! Even the 17th century’s ‘Tulip...

20 Years in the Making

In late August of 2000, the median stock in the S&P 500 hit its highest Forward P/E level ever. A 12-month Forward P/E of 26. For the better part of the last two decades, investment gurus routinely rebuked the foolishness of paying 26 times estimates of corporate...