Buffett and the Optionality of Cash

Can trillions of Fed liquidity overcome the probability of a deluge in corporate insolvencies? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell just acknowledged that additional government fiscal stimulus, not Fed stimulus, may be the only way to lessen this pain. “The passage of time is...

The Stock Bubble’s Price-to-Book

In 2016, oil prices fell dramatically, sending shivers down and up the spines of energy bondholders. Investors worried that a slew of energy companies would go belly up. In 2020, weak demand for oil is only part of the economic concern. Fragile demand across a wide...

Maximum ‘FOMO,’ Minimum Scrutiny

The most recent data on revolving consumer credit showed a record decline by $28 billion in March. That will continue to get worse as April and May data come in. Essentially, consumers will spend much less and lending standards will keep tightening. Of course, the...

The Great Disconnect: Stocks Vs. Real Life

Leading into 2020, the economy was growing at a modest pace (1.9%). By the end of the 2nd quarter, the economy will have recoiled at its quickest clip (-25%+) since the 1930s. Similarly, at the start of the year, unemployment for working-aged individuals was 3.5%. By...

Money Oversupply

During the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve began adding like crazy to the supply of money (M1) via quantitative easing (QE). The Fed effectively added trillions of dollars to M1 Money Supply over the 2008-2019 period, indirectly supporting stock...