Buffett and the Optionality of Cash

Can trillions of Fed liquidity overcome the probability of a deluge in corporate insolvencies? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell just acknowledged that additional government fiscal stimulus, not Fed stimulus, may be the only way to lessen this pain. “The passage of time is...

The Great Disconnect: Stocks Vs. Real Life

Leading into 2020, the economy was growing at a modest pace (1.9%). By the end of the 2nd quarter, the economy will have recoiled at its quickest clip (-25%+) since the 1930s. Similarly, at the start of the year, unemployment for working-aged individuals was 3.5%. By...

‘The World is More Than 15% Screwed Up’

Howard Marks is a billionaire investor as well as the top dog at Oaktree Capital Management. He views April’s stock market rally as “inappropriately positive.” Mr. Marks specifically pointed to the worst pandemic in 100 years, extraordinary...

The Bear Will Not End Until The Fed Is Buying Stock ETFs

We already know that the economic deterioration will be far more severe than the Great Recession. That’s why the federal government has served up freakish amounts of stimulus. In a similar vein, the Federal Reserve intends to do whatever it takes to stimulate...

Stock Market Bears Reward Patience

They call ’em, “Fallen Angels.” They’re bonds that the credit agencies demote from investment grade (IG) to high yield (HY). Unfortunately, there’s nothing angelic about a wave of downgrades happening all at once. And that’s what transpires in recessions. For example,...

Things That May Be Cheap Frequently Get Cheaper

It has been 20 years since the tech bubble burst. And it has been 12 year since the Bear Stearns bailout ushered in the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Lost in the shuffle? Long-term investing results. Over 20 years, “risk-free” Treasury bonds have handily...