A whopping 23% of the US civilian workforce collects unemployment payments. These folks are not working, nor are they retired. Yet, somehow, the official government stat for the U.S. unemployment rate is a tick higher than 11%. What gives? Due to the pandemic, the...

Roughly half of all U.S. employees work for small businesses. What's more, small businesses account for roughly half of net job creation. So the fact that small businesses anticipate starting 2021 with three-quarters of the head count that existed at the start of 2020...

Not only is the 2020 stock bubble trading at the most overvalued levels in U.S. history, but stocks are also extremely overbought on relative strength (RSI) indications. Investors would be hard-pressed to ignore the number of S&P 500 constituents that are trading...

Americans will surely spend some money when the economy "opens back up." Yet, how much will they consume? As it stands, households are dramatically increasing their savings. And according to a number of surveys, approximately 40% of savers are doing so because they do...

Households continue to struggle to pay regular bills, with more than one third looking to delay rent, cell phone charges and other utility payments. That will put a strain on discretionary spending. They certainly don't seem to be in the market for new cars. And...

Suddenly, small caps are all the rage. Never mind the job losses or the unfathomable overvaluation. Investors are choosing to pay the highest price in history for small company exposure. Granted, small stocks are still down roughly 15% from all-time highs. And they...

The S&P 500 crossed back above the 3000 marker, despite extraordinary stock overvaluation and economic malaise. It is almost as if investors have decided that the hope for a vaccine can override the credit cycle's downturn. For example, when ratings agencies...

Many describe the U.S. as a consumer-oriented economy. That is because consumer spending, not manufacturing, accounts for two-thirds to three-fourths of economic growth. It follows that consumers need to spend for the economy to do well. Yet, at the moment, one-third...

Correlation may not be causation. Nevertheless, there has often been a high correlation between the movement of the Consumer Comfort Index and the stock market (S&P 500). Until now. Despite Consumer Comfort plummeting more than 50%, the S&P 500 has rallied...

In 2016, oil prices fell dramatically, sending shivers down and up the spines of energy bondholders. Investors worried that a slew of energy companies would go belly up. In 2020, weak demand for oil is only part of the economic concern. Fragile demand across a wide...

The most recent data on revolving consumer credit showed a record decline by $28 billion in March. That will continue to get worse as April and May data come in. Essentially, consumers will spend much less and lending standards will keep tightening. Of course, the...

During the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve began adding like crazy to the supply of money (M1) via quantitative easing (QE). The Fed effectively added trillions of dollars to M1 Money Supply over the 2008-2019 period, indirectly supporting stock...

Consumers who do not express confidence about economic prospects are likely to decrease their spending. Here in 2020, you'd have to go back to 1973's ugly recession to find more discouraging data. In the 2020 U.S. economy, where consumers account for three-fourths of...

In 2008, we learned about the toxic debts on the books of financial firms. And for the most part, those toxic debts were synonymous with mortgage-backed securities. The financial sector via the SPDR Financial Sector ETF (XLF) weakened relative to the S&P 500...

Lenders continue tightening their belts. For example, it's getting harder and harder to procure a jumbo mortgage loan, as its availability has cratered by 37%. Even if one qualifies for a jumbo, he/she will see higher rates than conventional loans for the first time...

The Nasdaq's unique status grows curiouser and curiouser. Here in 2020, the market capitalization value for Nasdaq-listed stocks surpassed the collective value of ALL foreign shares in existence. It's as if tech mania can do no wrong. During the raging stock bull, you...

Events that we have never witnessed before are coming to fruition in the current economic downturn. For instance, for the first time ever,  WTI crude oil futures traded at a negative price. Perma-bulls are already pointing out that the technical anomaly does not mean...

Economic reality? We've already hit 18% unemployment. We're likely to hit 20%-25%. Bubble reflation reality? The Nasdaq is now positive in 2020, as tech is apparently immune to extraordinary overvaluation. Economic reality? Small companies, which make up the bulk of...

In the last three weeks alone, nearly 17 million made it to the jobless claims tally. There are likely another eight million coming over the next two weeks. Net result? Unemployment is likely to hit 20%. Think about the adverse impact on consumption. People will need...

Retracements represent short-term rallies against the primary trend. Yet once the retracement rally exhausts itself, it returns to the primary trend. (In this instance, we should see a return to the bear market downtrend.) The retracement rally to watch? 2811 on the...

Corporate debt downgrades are accelerating. The three-week tally for unemployment claims hit 17 million (4/9/20). And annual rate estimates for 2nd quarter GDP are circling around -30%. Yet the data points have not stopped the Federal Reserve's resolve to reflate the...